Match Analysis: France v Morocco (Semi-finals)
World Cup Semi-finals Review
France made the most of their early goal, that’s no question about it. Beating a very admired defence early on helped them tactically as Morocco had to chase a goal to fight back.
That situation may also have been interesting if we consider the fitness situation. France will have to play a big final against Argentina, a team that faced extra time situations as well as a lot of tension after the loss against Saudi Arabia in the first round of the Group Stage.
France certainly defended a lot during some parts of the game after their first goal, especially during the second half.
In fact, quite more than one would expect France to ever do against Morocco. However, pragmatism may be necessary sometimes. Especially after the injuries and problems with Rabiot, Upamecano and previous issues with Pogba, Kanté, Benzema and Lucas Hernandez in the last weeks.
But France resisted the incredible pressure of Morocco and scored the second goal. However, things developed in an unexpected way in the betting markets. Let’s have a look at the developments and if value ever presented itself in the professional markets.
The 1×2 market had anticipated the victory of France. The average odds that the bookies had to pay for the victory of France was 1.60.
The market, however, didn’t expect many goals and the full-time over/under result was on average in the Asian Markets 2.25 line.
So the average result in the AH market was half win and half loss with odds around 1.90.
The average AH line for the FT result was France -1 / Morocco +1.
It’s fair to say France didn’t play that well to justify a -1 handicap. Professional bettors often analyse game reviews in terms of what would have been a ‘fair handicap’, and considering the way both teams performed, in my opinion, that would be between -½ and -¼ ball, that is -0.25 to -0.5 as a handicap for France.
The live market, however, was cruel for bettors that believed in Morocco. When they were pressuring and France was all about defending in the second half, there were odds of Morocco +0 @3.22 at the score of 1-0.
The odds were slightly too big considering how they were performing, but France eventually killed that bet and paid the believers of the -1 handicap profits in the house of 100%.
I believe Morocco was one of those loser bets that looked like value. But personally, I’m fond of the way France is performing in this tournament, I never agreed with their odds behind Brazil in the outrights market as you can see here, and I believe they can go all the way against Argentina next Sunday.
Stay tuned for our Betting Preview for the third-place dispute against Croatia and the World Cup final!