Senegal World Cup Performance: Betting Review
Senegal was able to get out of a tough group, that in itself was somewhat surprising. The Netherlands was more than expected to top Group A, but the final battle against Ecuador was perhaps the most interesting game of Group A.
The battle between the Africans and the South Americans was interesting because Ecuador showed some unexpected strength and glimpses of amazing football.
An interesting fact that illustrates that is how Senegal arrived at the final game as underdogs against Ecuador.
The African team had a history of being able to qualify to the knockout stage in the World Cup, while the Ecuadorians were fighting to achieve that for the first time in their history.
Senegal’s Performance at Group A: Betting Analysis
In the last game of Group A, the victory of Senegal against Ecuador paid odds of 3.23, on average, a pretty big odd, while the victory of the Ecuadorians would have meant a profit of 148% (odds of 2.48 in the decimal system).
Senegal was seen by many as a more mature team at international level compared with Ecuador before this World Cup.
So, their qualification isn’t really a surprise. Personally, that was my guess before the World Cup, but I must admit Ecuador surprised me during the first games of Group A.
Ecuador had already ‘developed’ some considerable international credibility in the eyes of the analysts, fans, journalists and pretty much everyone else in the football community before the last fixture of Group A.
Ecuador had improved, and we are mentioning them a lot here because they pretty much could have changed the fate of Senegal, they were the big opponents of Senegal fighting for the 2nd spot in the Round of 16.
Speaking about past odds is always controversial, but it’s fair to say Senegal probably deserved a bit more credit ahead of the last game of the group, as they had been able to win against the hosts, Qatar, 3-1 and opposing the expectations of the host nation always carries extra pressure.
Losing against The Netherlands was perhaps almost undeserved as they were fighting hard against the Dutch side and could perfectly have collected a point or more there.
So, in summary, perhaps the odds were adjusted a bit too much and a level ball (+0) handicap in the Asian Handicap markets with even odds would be a fair pre-match market odds situation before the last game against Ecuador.
If that had happened, the mathematical consequence in the 1×2 market would be equal odds to both teams, more or less what happened in World Cup Final, where Argentina and France had similar odds and the team with smaller odds changed as the final approached (France started handicapped by a few clicks, then Argentina had the smaller odds in the last hours before the final).
There isn’t much to say about the loss of Senegal against England, as the Africans probably went as far as they could after a tough Round of 16 drawing. Had the team been seeded against smoother opposition, perhaps Senegal could have gone further than the eight-finals in the 2022 FIFA World Cup.